We've fitted some models and would like to know how to use them to really understand the quality of the models. The model metrics look like this:
and comparing it to ASHRAE 14 guidelines, which gives us these formulas:
My questions are:
1. Is the autocorr_resid the rho (p) is B-14?
2. What are the right parameters for n and m? According to an early page in ASHRAE 14, n and m are "number of observations in the baseline (or pre- retrofit) and the post-ECM periods, respectively" If the model is a daily, should n be 365, so in this case, n' = 365 * (1-0.4792) / (1+0.4792) = 128.5? If the model is used to compare energy savings over a year, should m be 365? Or should m be 30 if we're comparing the energy savings on a monthly basis?
3. How many model parameters are there? In a combined heating and cooling model, should it be 5 -- 2 betas, 2 balance points, and an intercept -- or 3?
Calculating all this from my example model, I get a 25.8% uncertainty for F (energy savings) of 20% at 68% confidence (t = 1) Does that seem reasonable for a daily model with this much CVRMSE?